All resolved pollsResolved · 16 SEPT 2026Upset
AC Milan0
Benfica2
The verdict

The crowd backed Milan. Benfica won 0–2.

AC Milan vs Benfica 634 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Milan, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Milan
46%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario32%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters634World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Milan70%
SL Benfica ✓18%
Tie12%
OutcomeSL Benfica
Voters634
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals56%
Under 2.5 goals ✓44%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters634
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters634
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MilanUpset
Mkt 46%Crowd 70%+24pp
Result: SL Benfica · 1.18
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 56%+1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 67%+7pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.18
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.63
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.90
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 32% of voters

A confident, open-game vision: Milan in control, both defences breached, goals flowing freely in a high-tempo contest.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, disciplined Milan victory: one team dominant, the other shut out, the game decided by a narrow, controlled margin.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A cagey but open affair: Milan edging it while Benfica grab a consolation, the game settled with few chances and little margin.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 634 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
132%205 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
216%101 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
313%85 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
49%55 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
58%50 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
65%31 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
75%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
84%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
93%17 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
102%15 voters
SL BenficaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (634 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 317 · 3%
2 / 3160 · 25%
1 / 3228 · 36%
0 / 3229 · 36%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=634). Average 0.94 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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