All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
84%Crowd
59%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on City win, the widest gap across all three legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap59%84% Manchester City+25
2Will both teams score?64%67% Yes+3
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?67%69% Over 2.5 goals+2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario44%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters538World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City84%
Brighton8%
Tie7%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters538
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals69%
Under 2.5 goals31%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters538
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters538
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester City
Mkt 59%Crowd 84%+25pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 67%Crowd 69%+2pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 64%Crowd 67%+3pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 44% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: City win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A City win with plenty of goals but Brighton kept off the scoresheet, a one-sided attacking display that still clears the total.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

City grind out a tight, controlled win, goals are scarce and Brighton fail to register, a low-tempo, shutout-flavoured result.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 538 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
144%235 voters
Manchester CityPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
217%92 voters
Manchester CityPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.9×
312%67 voters
Manchester CityPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
411%60 voters
Manchester CityPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
54%24 voters
BrightonPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
63%17 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
2.2×
72%13 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
82%9 voters
BrightonPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.0×
92%9 voters
BrightonPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
2.0×
101%6 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (538 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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