The crowd backed Atlas. Tie won 1–1.
Atlas vs Atlante: how does it end? 686 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Atlante, below on Atlas, draw underweighted by both sides.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Atlas than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's narrow plurality saw Atlas controlling the tie and taking all three points on home turf, making it the modal vision but only just.
A near-equal share of the crowd backed Atlante to cause an upset, making this a genuine two-horse split rather than a clear consensus.
A smaller but real slice of the crowd foresaw neither side breaking through, with the spoils shared and no winner emerging on the day.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.98
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.