All resolved pollsResolved · 18 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Sao Paulo vs Bolivar: how does it end?
São Paulo 3–1 Bolívar
The verdict

São Paulo 3–1 Bolívar

Sao Paulo vs Bolivar: how does it end? 655 verified humans answered. Crowd and market almost perfectly aligned on Sao Paulo win; crowd notably cooler on a draw than the market implied.

67%Crowd on Reg Time: Sao Paulo
66%Market price
+1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

655 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: Sao PauloWhat happened67%442 voters
Reg Time: Bolivar24%160 voters
Reg Time: Tie8%53 voters
Reg Time: Sao Paulo won, so 67% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Sao Paulo at 66%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
67%442 voters
Reg Time: Sao Paulo

A dominant majority of the crowd saw Sao Paulo controlling the tie and taking the win inside ninety minutes, the clear centre of gravity in the joint map.

Scenario 2
24%160 voters
Reg Time: Bolivar

A meaningful minority held a contrarian vision of Bolivar causing an upset on the road, a scenario the crowd weighted well above what the market suggested was likely.

Scenario 3
8%53 voters
Reg Time: Tie

Only a small slice of the crowd pictured the sides level after ninety minutes, a far more sceptical view of stalemate than the market's pricing reflected.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.17
Brier score
0.17

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
442 of 655

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.