All resolved pollsResolved · 9 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Union La Calera vs Colo-Colo: how does it end?
Unión La Calera 1–2 Colo Colo
The verdict

Unión La Calera 1–2 Colo Colo

Union La Calera vs Colo-Colo: how does it end? 775 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Colo-Colo, well below on the Tie, and the result followed.

67%Crowd on Colo-Colo
54%Market price
+13Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

775 verified humans · one human, one vote
Colo-ColoWhat happened67%523 voters
Union La Calera19%147 voters
Tie14%105 voters
Colo-Colo won, so 67% of the crowd called it. The market had Colo-Colo at 54%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
54%
67%
Crowd
+13 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Colo-Colo than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
67%523 voters
Colo-Colo

Two-thirds of the crowd saw Colo-Colo leaving La Calera with the points, a conviction far stronger than the market was pricing.

Scenario 2
19%147 voters
Union La Calera

A small but firm slice of the crowd held out for a home win, seeing Union La Calera as capable of causing an upset on their own turf.

Scenario 3
14%105 voters
Tie

The smallest crowd camp envisioned a stalemate, a scenario the crowd treated as far less likely than the market suggested.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.16
Brier score
0.16

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
523 of 775

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.