Vélez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors: how does it end?
Vélez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors: how does it end? 720 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Boca, well below on a draw, and the result sided with that tilt.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Boca Juniors than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
Two-thirds of the crowd saw Boca taking the points away from Vélez, a conviction far stronger than the market implied.
A fifth of the crowd held out for a Vélez home win, roughly in line with what the market suggested for the hosts.
Only a small slice of the crowd envisioned the sides sharing the spoils, a much quieter read than the market assigned to a draw.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.17
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.