All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Aldosivi vs Independiente Rivadavia: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

Aldosivi vs Independiente Rivadavia: how does it end?

Aldosivi vs Independiente Rivadavia: how does it end? 719 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Independiente Rivadavia, well below on the Tie. Read aligned with the outcome.

57%Crowd on Independiente Rivadavia
49%Market price
+8Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

719 verified humans · one human, one vote
Independiente RivadaviaWhat happened57%413 voters
Aldosivi24%173 voters
Tie18%133 voters
Independiente Rivadavia won, so 57% of the crowd called it. The market had Independiente Rivadavia at 49%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
49%
57%
Crowd
+8 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Independiente Rivadavia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
57%413 voters
Independiente Rivadavia

The crowd's dominant vision: Independiente Rivadavia in control, taking the points in a match the majority saw as theirs to win.

Scenario 2
24%173 voters
Aldosivi

A minority picture of Aldosivi finding a way through at home, turning the market's scepticism into a local victory.

Scenario 3
18%133 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate where neither side could separate themselves, leaving the points shared.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.27
Brier score
0.27

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
413 of 719

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.