All resolved pollsResolved · 18 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Universidad Catolica vs Estudiantes de La Plata: how does it end?
Universidad Católica 0–3 Estudiantes de La Plata
The verdict

Universidad Católica 0–3 Estudiantes de La Plata

Universidad Catolica vs Estudiantes de La Plata: how does it end? 652 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Estudiantes win, and the result aligned with that read.

54%Crowd on Reg Time: Estudiantes La Plata
33%Market price
+21Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

652 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: Estudiantes La PlataWhat happened54%352 voters
Reg Time: Universidad Catolica27%173 voters
Reg Time: Tie19%127 voters
Reg Time: Estudiantes La Plata won, so 54% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Estudiantes La Plata at 33%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
33%
54%
Crowd
+21 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Estudiantes La Plata than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
54%352 voters
Reg Time: Estudiantes La Plata

The crowd's dominant vision: Estudiantes controlling the tie and taking the regulation win away from home in Santiago.

Scenario 2
27%173 voters
Reg Time: Universidad Catolica

A meaningful minority saw the hosts asserting home advantage and sealing a regulation victory at the Estadio San Carlos.

Scenario 3
19%127 voters
Reg Time: Tie

The smallest share of the crowd pictured neither side breaking the deadlock, with ninety minutes ending level.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.32
Brier score
0.32

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
352 of 652

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.