The crowd called it — Lyon won 3–1.
Lyon vs Auxerre: how does it end? 712 verified humans answered. Crowd ran above market on Lyon, well below on Tie. Both gaps pointed the same way as the outcome.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Lyon than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Lyon in control at home, with nearly three-quarters of voters converging on a home win as the clear, settled expectation.
A minority vision of an Auxerre upset, with a small but committed slice of the crowd seeing the visitors pulling off a surprise away result.
The crowd's least-favoured scenario: a stalemate, backed by only a thin tail of voters who saw neither side pulling clear by the final whistle.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.12
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.