All resolved pollsResolved · 4 SEPT 2026Upset
Real BetisWon · Crowd had 10%1
Real MadridCrowd's pick · 84%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Real Madrid. Real Betis won 1–0.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid: how does it end? 716 verified humans answered. Crowd pushed Real Madrid well above market price, but Real Betis delivered the upset both sides underweighted.

84%Crowd on Real Madrid
71%Market price
+13Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

716 verified humans · one human, one vote
Real MadridCrowd’s pick84%602 voters
Real BetisWhat happened10%70 voters
Tie6%44 voters
Real Betis won, so 10% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 84% did not. The market had Real Madrid at 71%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
71%
84%
Crowd
+13 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Real Madrid than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
84%602 voters
Real Madrid

The crowd's dominant vision: Real Madrid travelling to Seville and leaving with the points, a conviction held by the overwhelming share of voters.

Scenario 2Came true
10%70 voters
Real Betis

A fringe belief among the crowd: Real Betis holding their ground at home and taking all three points against the visitors.

Scenario 3
6%44 voters
Tie

The least-held vision in the room: neither side breaking the deadlock, the spoils shared in a stalemate at the Benito Villamarín.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.52
Brier score
1.52

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
70 of 716

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.