All resolved pollsResolved · 4 SEPT 2026Upset
Paris Saint-Germain FC1
AS Monaco FC2
The verdict

The crowd backed PSG. Monaco won 1–2.

PSG vs Monaco: how does it end? 713 verified humans answered. Crowd ran Monaco at nearly twice the market price, a wide gap that met the actual result.

74%Crowd on PSG
75%Market price
-1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

713 verified humans · one human, one vote
PSGCrowd’s pick74%525 voters
MonacoWhat happened19%133 voters
Tie8%55 voters
Monaco won, so 19% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 74% did not. The market had PSG at 75%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
74%525 voters
PSG

Three quarters of the crowd saw PSG as the clear winner at home, a dominant consensus that left little room for doubt.

Scenario 2Came true
19%133 voters
Monaco

A notable minority held firm on Monaco pulling off the away win, sitting far above what the market was willing to price.

Scenario 3
8%55 voters
Tie

A small slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through, with the spoils shared and no winner on the night.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.21
Brier score
1.21

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
133 of 713

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.