All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: how does it end?
Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad
The verdict

Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: how does it end? 719 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Real Madrid, well below on Tie. The result aligned with the crowd's lean.

83%Crowd on Real Madrid
71%Market price
+12Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

719 verified humans · one human, one vote
Real MadridWhat happened83%596 voters
Real Sociedad11%77 voters
Tie6%46 voters
Real Madrid won, so 83% of the crowd called it. The market had Real Madrid at 71%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
71%
83%
Crowd
+12 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Real Madrid than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
83%596 voters
Real Madrid

An overwhelming majority of the crowd saw Real Madrid in control from the off, converging tightly on a home win as the dominant and near-certain vision.

Scenario 2
11%77 voters
Real Sociedad

A small but firm minority held a contrarian vision, seeing Real Sociedad causing an upset and leaving Madrid with nothing.

Scenario 3
6%46 voters
Tie

The thinnest slice of the crowd pictured a stalemate, both sides cancelling each other out and the points shared.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.04
Brier score
0.04

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
596 of 719

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.