All resolved pollsResolved · 21 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo: how does it end?
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–0 San Lorenzo
The verdict

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–0 San Lorenzo

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo: how does it end? 651 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into San Lorenzo where the market saw a coin-flip three-way split; the draw cut against that lean.

57%Crowd on San Lorenzo de Almagro
33%Market price
+24Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

651 verified humans · one human, one vote
San Lorenzo de AlmagroCrowd’s pick57%372 voters
Rio Cuarto35%226 voters
TieWhat happened8%53 voters
Tie won, so 8% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 57% did not. The market had San Lorenzo de Almagro at 33%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
33%
57%
Crowd
+24 ppts

The crowd was more confident in San Lorenzo de Almagro than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
57%372 voters
San Lorenzo de Almagro

A decisive majority of the crowd envisioned San Lorenzo taking the points, making this the single dominant vision in the poll by a wide margin.

Scenario 2
35%226 voters
Rio Cuarto

A substantial minority saw the home side, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, claiming victory on their own ground, forming the clear second camp in the crowd's collective map.

Scenario 3Came true
8%53 voters
Tie

Only a small slice of the crowd pictured the match ending level, making the draw scenario the least-held vision despite the market pricing it as equally likely as the other two.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.29
Brier score
1.29

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
53 of 651

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.