All resolved pollsResolved · 25 AUG 2026Upset
LASK vs Celtic: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

LASK vs Celtic: how does it end?

LASK vs Celtic: how does it end? 701 verified humans answered. Crowd backed Celtic at more than twice the market price; the match ended in the least-fancied outcome for both.

70%Crowd on Celtic
29%Market price
+41Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

701 verified humans · one human, one vote
CelticCrowd’s pick70%490 voters
LASK18%128 voters
TieWhat happened12%83 voters
Tie won, so 12% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 70% did not. The market had Celtic at 29%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
29%
70%
Crowd
+41 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Celtic than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
70%490 voters
Celtic

The dominant crowd vision: Celtic controlling the tie and leaving Austria with the win, a conviction held by a commanding majority of voters.

Scenario 2
18%128 voters
LASK

A minority crowd picture: LASK finding a way through at home, the scenario the market priced as most likely but the crowd largely dismissed.

Scenario 3Came true
12%83 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-held vision: honours even at full time, a stalemate that neither the crowd nor the market expected but which ultimately unfolded.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.30
Brier score
1.30

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
83 of 701

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.