All resolved pollsResolved · 31 AUG 2026Upset
MonterreyCrowd had 64%1
Atlético de San Luis3
The verdict

The crowd backed Monterrey. San Luis won 1–3.

Monterrey vs San Luis: how does it end? 674 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on San Luis, below on Tie. The upset landed on the crowd's higher side.

64%Crowd on Monterrey
65%Market price
-1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

674 verified humans · one human, one vote
MonterreyCrowd’s pick64%430 voters
San LuisWhat happened23%158 voters
Tie13%86 voters
San Luis won, so 23% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 64% did not. The market had Monterrey at 65%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
64%430 voters
Monterrey

The dominant crowd vision: Monterrey controlling proceedings at home and closing out a win in front of their own supporters.

Scenario 2Came true
23%158 voters
San Luis

A minority but meaningful crowd vision: San Luis holding their shape on the road and leaving Monterrey with nothing.

Scenario 3
13%86 voters
Tie

The smallest crowd vision: neither side able to separate themselves, the points shared after a closely contested stalemate.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.02
Brier score
1.02

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
158 of 674

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.