All resolved pollsResolved · 3 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
CanadaWon · Crowd had 62%2
PeruCrowd had 25%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Canada won 2–0.

Canada vs Peru 591 verified humans answered. Crowd on Canada: well above market price, and the result followed.

62%Crowd on Canada
42%Market price
+20Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

591 verified humans · one human, one vote
CanadaWhat happened62%368 voters
Peru25%145 voters
Tie13%78 voters
Canada won, so 62% of the crowd called it. The market had Canada at 42%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
42%
62%
Crowd
+20 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Canada than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
62%368 voters
Canada

The crowd's dominant vision: Canada controlling the contest and taking the result, backed by a clear majority of verified voters.

Scenario 2
25%145 voters
Peru

A meaningful minority saw Peru finding a way through, picturing the visitors as capable of turning the match in their favour.

Scenario 3
13%78 voters
Tie

A smaller cluster imagined neither side breaking the deadlock, with the points shared and the contest ending level.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.22
Brier score
0.22

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
368 of 591

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.