LDU Quito 0–0 Mirassol
LDU Quito vs Mirassol: how does it end? 671 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on Mirassol win, well below on LDU Quito, draw caught both off-guard.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Reg Time: LDU Quito than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: LDU Quito controlling proceedings at home and closing out a regulation win, backed by a clear majority of voters.
A sizeable minority saw Mirassol pulling off a road result, a conviction running far hotter than the market's own assessment of that possibility.
A small slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through, with the spoils shared after ninety minutes of regulation.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.42
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.