All resolved pollsResolved · 18 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors: how does it end?
Deportivo Recoleta 0–4 Boca Juniors
The verdict

Deportivo Recoleta 0–4 Boca Juniors

Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors: how does it end? 656 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on Boca win, well below on the draw.

73%Crowd on Reg Time: Boca Juniors
58%Market price
+15Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

656 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: Boca JuniorsWhat happened73%482 voters
Reg Time: CD Recoleta20%134 voters
Reg Time: Tie6%40 voters
Reg Time: Boca Juniors won, so 73% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Boca Juniors at 58%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
58%
73%
Crowd
+15 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Boca Juniors than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
73%482 voters
Reg Time: Boca Juniors

The dominant crowd vision: Boca Juniors in control from the off, settling the tie in regulation without needing extra time or penalties.

Scenario 2
20%134 voters
Reg Time: CD Recoleta

A minority crowd vision where Deportivo Recoleta pulls off the upset, ending regulation as the winning side on home terms.

Scenario 3
6%40 voters
Reg Time: Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: neither side separates in regulation, leaving the match level at the final whistle.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.12
Brier score
0.12

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
482 of 656

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.