The crowd backed Botafogo. Paranaense won 2–3.
Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense: how does it end? 705 verified humans answered. Crowd ran 13 points above market on Botafogo; Paranaense upset left both sides short.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Botafogo than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Botafogo win at home, backed by a clear majority and well ahead of what the market implied.
A sizeable minority saw Paranaense leaving with the points, and the crowd's share on this outcome actually exceeded the market's own implied probability.
The crowd largely dismissed a stalemate, assigning it far less weight than the market did, making it the most crowd-vs-market compressed outcome on the board.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.72
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.