All resolved pollsResolved · 17 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Lanus vs Independiente: how does it end?
Lanús 1–3 Independiente
The verdict

Lanús 1–3 Independiente

Lanus vs Independiente: how does it end? 635 verified humans answered. Crowd sat far above market on Independiente, and the outcome followed that lean.

58%Crowd on Independiente Avellaneda
27%Market price
+31Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

635 verified humans · one human, one vote
Independiente AvellanedaWhat happened58%366 voters
Lanus34%215 voters
Tie9%54 voters
Independiente Avellaneda won, so 58% of the crowd called it. The market had Independiente Avellaneda at 27%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
27%
58%
Crowd
+31 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Independiente Avellaneda than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
58%366 voters
Independiente Avellaneda

The crowd's dominant vision: Independiente Avellaneda leaving Lanus's ground with the points, a conviction held by a clear majority of verified voters.

Scenario 2
34%215 voters
Lanus

A substantial minority saw Lanus taking the win at home, making it the crowd's second-most-backed vision for how the match would end.

Scenario 3
9%54 voters
Tie

A small fringe of the crowd pictured neither side separating, with a draw the least-favoured vision across the verified electorate.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.30
Brier score
0.30

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
366 of 635

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.