The crowd backed Colombia. Paraguay won 0–1.
Colombia vs Paraguay 594 verified humans answered. Crowd doubled down on Colombia; market said draw, Paraguay said otherwise.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Colombia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Colombia in control, a comfortable home-side victory that the majority of verified voters saw as the clear and likely path.
A minority read within the crowd, Paraguay as quiet disruptors capable of stealing the result against the grain of collective expectation.
The smallest slice of the crowd imagined neither side breaking through, a stalemate that the market priced as the most likely outcome but the crowd largely dismissed.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.95
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.