All resolved pollsResolved · 19 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro: how does it end?
Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro
The verdict

Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro: how does it end? 663 verified humans answered. Crowd far above market on Cruzeiro, far below on the draw, yet locked in step on the winner.

58%Crowd on Reg Time: Flamengo
58%Market price
0Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

663 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: FlamengoWhat happened58%383 voters
Reg Time: Cruzeiro33%222 voters
Reg Time: Tie9%58 voters
Reg Time: Flamengo won, so 58% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Flamengo at 58%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
58%383 voters
Reg Time: Flamengo

A clear majority of the crowd saw Flamengo taking it in regulation, a conviction that sat in lockstep with the market's own favourite.

Scenario 2
33%222 voters
Reg Time: Cruzeiro

Roughly one in three voters backed Cruzeiro to win outright in regulation, a far bolder stance than the market was willing to price.

Scenario 3
9%58 voters
Reg Time: Tie

The crowd largely dismissed a draw, leaving it a distant third, well below the weight the market assigned to that possibility.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.29
Brier score
0.29

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
383 of 663

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.