The crowd called it — Vila Nova won 2–0.
Vila Nova vs Londrina: Brasileirão Série B 600 verified humans answered. Crowd ran 15 points cold on Vila Nova, well below market, yet both converged on the same winner.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Vila Nova than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Vila Nova take the points at home, though with far less certainty than the market assigned them.
Nearly three in ten voters saw Londrina leaving with the win, a share almost double what the market was pricing for the away side.
Roughly one in four voters pictured the sides cancelling each other out, a modest but meaningful slice of collective doubt about a decisive home result.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.41
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.