All resolved pollsResolved · 25 AUG 2026
Manila: how hot on 26 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Manila: how hot on 26 August?

Manila: how hot on 26 August? 232 verified humans answered. Belief almost perfectly flat across three adjacent temperatures, with 34°C edging a razor-thin plurality.

22%Crowd on 34°C

How the crowd voted

232 verified humans · one human, one vote
34°CCrowd’s pick22%51 voters
32°CWhat happened21%49 voters
33°C20%47 voters
31°C15%35 voters
30°C11%25 voters
29°C7%17 voters
Other3%8 voters
32°C won, so 21% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 22% did not.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
22%51 voters
34°C

The crowd's narrow plurality vision: Manila baking at its hottest, a peak that would mark a genuinely sweltering late-August afternoon.

Scenario 2Came true
21%49 voters
32°C

A close rival read: Manila hot but not at its ceiling, a firmly warm day that fell just short of the crowd's top call.

Scenario 3
20%47 voters
33°C

The middle-ground vision: Manila sitting one degree between the two frontrunners, a credible and well-supported alternative picture.

Scenario 4
15%35 voters
31°C

15% of voters backed 31°C.

Scenario 5
11%25 voters
30°C

11% of voters backed 30°C.

Scenario 6
7%17 voters
29°C

7% of voters backed 29°C.

Scenario 7
3%8 voters
Other

3% of voters backed Other.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.75
Brier score
0.75

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-5

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
49 of 232

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.