All resolved pollsResolved · 30 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
BanfieldCrowd had 27%2
River PlateWon · Crowd had 60%3
The verdict

The crowd called it — River Plate won 2–3.

Banfield vs River Plate: how does it end? 694 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on River Plate, well below on Tie. Both gaps aligned with the outcome.

60%Crowd on River Plate
54%Market price
+6Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

694 verified humans · one human, one vote
River PlateWhat happened60%419 voters
Banfield27%185 voters
Tie13%90 voters
River Plate won, so 60% of the crowd called it. The market had River Plate at 54%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
54%
60%
Crowd
+6 ppts

The crowd was more confident in River Plate than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
60%419 voters
River Plate

The crowd's dominant vision: River Plate leaving with the points, backed by a clear majority of voters with little hesitation.

Scenario 2
27%185 voters
Banfield

A meaningful minority held firm on a Banfield win at home, keeping that scenario alive on the collective map.

Scenario 3
13%90 voters
Tie

The crowd largely dismissed a share of the spoils, assigning it the thinnest slice of collective belief by a wide margin.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.25
Brier score
0.25

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
419 of 694

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.