The crowd called it — Toluca won 4–0.
Toluca vs Juarez: how does it end? 670 verified humans answered. Crowd well below market on Toluca, spreading doubt the market barely priced, though Toluca won.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Toluca than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Toluca control the match and take the points, though far fewer voters held this view than the market implied.
A sizeable crowd contingent saw Juarez pulling off the upset, a scenario the market priced as a remote possibility but the crowd treated as a live one.
Nearly one in five voters pictured neither side breaking through, a stalemate outcome the crowd weighted more heavily than the market suggested.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.42
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.