All resolved pollsResolved · 16 AUG 2026
Japan’s April-to-June growth: pick the range
Resolved
The verdict

Japan’s April-to-June growth: pick the range

Japan’s April-to-June growth: pick the range 557 verified humans answered. Crowd leaned toward the faster end of the range. The actual figure landed one band lower.

38%Crowd on 1.6%–2.4%

How the crowd voted

557 verified humans · one human, one vote
1.6%–2.4%Crowd’s pick38%211 voters
0.8%–1.6%What happened24%134 voters
0.0%–0.8%23%127 voters
2.4%–3.2%11%63 voters
Outside 0.0% to 3.2%4%22 voters
0.8%–1.6% won, so 24% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 38% did not.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
38%211 voters
1.6%–2.4%

The crowd's modal vision: a quarter of genuine momentum, Japan's economy expanding at a pace that signals durable recovery rather than a soft drift.

Scenario 2Came true
24%134 voters
0.8%–1.6%

A steady but unspectacular quarter in this vision, growth present but restrained, the economy moving forward without the lift the top scenario imagined.

Scenario 3
23%127 voters
0.0%–0.8%

The cautious fringe of the crowd saw near-stagnation, a quarter where Japan's economy barely moved, expansion real but barely distinguishable from flatness.

Scenario 4
11%63 voters
2.4%–3.2%

11% of voters backed 2.4%–3.2%.

Scenario 5
4%22 voters
Outside 0.0% to 3.2%

4% of voters backed Outside 0.0% to 3.2%.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.79
Brier score
0.79

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-3

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
134 of 557

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.