All resolved pollsResolved · 30 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
FlamengoWon · Crowd had 68%3
BotafogoCrowd had 19%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Flamengo won 3–0.

Flamengo vs Botafogo: how does it end? 693 verified humans answered. Crowd undercut the market hard on a draw, and ran above it on Botafogo. Flamengo won.

68%Crowd on Flamengo
67%Market price
+1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

693 verified humans · one human, one vote
FlamengoWhat happened68%472 voters
Botafogo19%131 voters
Tie13%90 voters
Flamengo won, so 68% of the crowd called it. The market had Flamengo at 67%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
68%472 voters
Flamengo

The crowd's dominant vision: Flamengo in control, with more than two-thirds of voters converging on this outcome and little appetite for alternatives.

Scenario 2
19%131 voters
Botafogo

A minority vision of Botafogo pulling off the result, backed above the market price but still a distant second in the crowd's collective read.

Scenario 3
13%90 voters
Tie

The crowd's least favoured scenario, with notably fewer believers than the market implied, signalling collective scepticism toward a shared-points finish.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.16
Brier score
0.16

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
472 of 693

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.