All resolved pollsResolved · 13 OCT 2026Upset
Millonarios1
Once CaldasCrowd had 25%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Millonarios FC. It finished 1–1.

Millonarios vs Once Caldas 559 verified humans answered. Crowd undercut the draw hard, overweighted Once Caldas, and the draw landed.

59%Crowd on Millonarios FC
58%Market price
+1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

559 verified humans · one human, one vote
Millonarios FCCrowd’s pick59%328 voters
Once Caldas25%140 voters
TieWhat happened16%91 voters
It was a draw, so 16% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 59% did not. The market had Millonarios FC at 58%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
59%328 voters
Millonarios FC

A dominant home conviction: the crowd saw Millonarios controlling proceedings and taking all three points on their own turf.

Scenario 2
25%140 voters
Once Caldas

A contrarian but meaningful bloc saw Once Caldas causing an upset, rated well above what the market was willing to price in.

Scenario 3Came true
16%91 voters
Tie

The smallest camp imagined a stalemate, a scenario both the crowd and the market were reluctant to entertain.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.12
Brier score
1.12

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
91 of 559

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.