All resolved pollsResolved · 17 AUG 2026Upset
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman: how does it end?
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–1 Atlético Tucumán
The verdict

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–1 Atlético Tucumán

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman: how does it end? 660 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into Rio Cuarto well above market; Tucuman won as the field's long shot landed.

53%Crowd on Rio Cuarto
32%Market price
+21Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

660 verified humans · one human, one vote
Rio CuartoCrowd’s pick53%347 voters
TucumanWhat happened28%184 voters
Tie20%129 voters
Tucuman won, so 28% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 53% did not. The market had Rio Cuarto at 32%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
32%
53%
Crowd
+21 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Rio Cuarto than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
53%347 voters
Rio Cuarto

The crowd's dominant vision: a home win for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, backed by a clear majority and sitting far above where the market priced that outcome.

Scenario 2Came true
28%184 voters
Tucuman

A minority of the crowd saw Atletico Tucuman leaving with the points, a read the market priced equally to the other two but the crowd treated as the least likely named winner.

Scenario 3
20%129 voters
Tie

The smallest slice of the crowd envisioned a stalemate, a scenario the market rated on par with the other outcomes but which the crowd collectively pushed to the bottom of its

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.84
Brier score
0.84

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
184 of 660

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.