All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Upset
Boyacá Chicó0
Cúcuta Deportivo1
The verdict

The crowd backed Boyacá Chicó FC. Cúcuta Deportivo FC won 0–1.

Boyacá Chicó FC vs Cúcuta Deportivo 518 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Boyacá Chicó, below on the draw. Cúcuta's win landed outside both reads.

42%Crowd on Boyacá Chicó FC
39%Market price
+3Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

518 verified humans · one human, one vote
Boyacá Chicó FCCrowd’s pick42%216 voters
Cúcuta Deportivo FCWhat happened35%179 voters
Tie24%123 voters
Cúcuta Deportivo FC won, so 35% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 42% did not. The market had Boyacá Chicó FC at 39%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
39%
42%
Crowd
+3 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Boyacá Chicó FC than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
42%216 voters
Boyacá Chicó FC

The crowd's modal vision: home advantage holds, Boyacá Chicó control the contest and claim the points on their own turf.

Scenario 2Came true
35%179 voters
Cúcuta Deportivo FC

A sizeable minority saw Cúcuta Deportivo travelling well, absorbing pressure and leaving with all three points against the home side.

Scenario 3
24%123 voters
Tie

The smallest slice of the crowd pictured an evenly contested stalemate, with neither side able to force a decisive moment.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.66
Brier score
0.66

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
179 of 518

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.