The crowd backed Atlético Madrid. Athletic Bilbao won 3–0.
Athletic Bilbao vs Atlético Madrid: how does it end? 650 verified humans answered. Crowd piled on Atlético Madrid at more than double the market weight. The Tie landed instead.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Atlético Madrid than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
An overwhelming crowd consensus: Atlético Madrid would leave Bilbao with the win, a conviction held by the vast majority of verified voters.
A small but firm minority saw the home side pulling off a win, backing Athletic Bilbao against the crowd's dominant grain.
The thinnest slice of the crowd pictured neither side breaking through, a stalemate that almost no one in the room expected.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.38
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.