US jobless claims for the week ending 15 August 631 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on higher claims, a gap the outcome did not vindicate.
The crowd was more confident in 210,000 or more than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
The crowd's dominant vision: a labour market softening enough to push weekly filings to elevated territory, with clear majority conviction behind this read.
A minority view within the crowd, holding that claims would stay contained below the threshold, closer to the market's own implied lean.
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.