All resolved pollsResolved · 18 AUG 2026Upset
Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense: how does it end?
Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense (decided on penalties)
The verdict

Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense (decided on penalties)

Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense: how does it end? 659 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into Fluminense win at more than double the market's implied probability, draw proved both wrong.

60%Crowd on Reg Time: Fluminense
28%Market price
+32Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

659 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: FluminenseCrowd’s pick60%398 voters
Reg Time: Rivadavia31%204 voters
Reg Time: TieWhat happened9%57 voters
Reg Time: Tie won, so 9% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 60% did not. The market had Reg Time: Fluminense at 28%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
28%
60%
Crowd
+32 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Fluminense than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
60%398 voters
Reg Time: Fluminense

The dominant crowd vision: Fluminense controlling the tie and leaving Argentina with the win, a conviction far stronger than the market reflected.

Scenario 2
31%204 voters
Reg Time: Rivadavia

A sizeable minority saw the home side pulling off a victory on their own turf, closer to the market's lean but still a secondary read for the crowd.

Scenario 3Came true
9%57 voters
Reg Time: Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate with neither side breaking through, a scenario the market also underweighted relative to the other options.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.28
Brier score
1.28

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
57 of 659

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.