The crowd backed CA Newell's Old Boys. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza won 1–0.
Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Newell's Old Boys 551 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on Newell's, well below on Gimnasia. Market lean proved closer to the outcome.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in CA Newell's Old Boys than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Newell's travelling to Mendoza and coming away with the points, a conviction that drew in half the entire verified electorate.
A substantial minority saw the home side holding their ground and grinding out a result, a read the market priced more generously than the crowd did.
The smallest camp pictured neither side breaking through, a stalemate scenario the crowd rated as the least likely of the three outcomes.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.76
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.