All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026Upset
Vasco da Gama vs Vitória: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

Vasco da Gama vs Vitória: how does it end?

Vasco da Gama vs Vitória: how does it end? 713 verified humans answered. Crowd underweighted Tie most sharply, the very outcome that landed as the upset.

63%Crowd on Vasco da Gama
58%Market price
+5Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

713 verified humans · one human, one vote
Vasco da GamaCrowd’s pick63%448 voters
Vitória24%169 voters
TieWhat happened13%96 voters
Tie won, so 13% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 63% did not. The market had Vasco da Gama at 58%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
58%
63%
Crowd
+5 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Vasco da Gama than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
63%448 voters
Vasco da Gama

The crowd's dominant vision: Vasco da Gama in control at home, with nearly two-thirds of voters converging on this as the clear, singular outcome.

Scenario 2
24%169 voters
Vitória

A minority but meaningful bloc saw Vitória leaving with the win, holding the second-largest share of collective belief in the room.

Scenario 3Came true
13%96 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate that fewer than one in seven voters believed would materialise, sitting well below even the market's own scepticism.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.21
Brier score
1.21

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
96 of 713

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.