All resolved pollsResolved · 9 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central: how does it end?
Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Barracas Central
The verdict

Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Barracas Central

Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central: how does it end? 673 verified humans answered. Crowd backed Barracas at more than double the market's implied probability, the widest gap on the board.

51%Crowd on Gimnasia La Plata
54%Market price
-3Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

673 verified humans · one human, one vote
Gimnasia La PlataWhat happened51%344 voters
Barracas43%289 voters
Tie6%40 voters
Gimnasia La Plata won, so 51% of the crowd called it. The market had Gimnasia La Plata at 54%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
54%
51%
Crowd
-3 ppts

The crowd was less confident in Gimnasia La Plata than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
51%344 voters
Gimnasia La Plata

The crowd's plurality vision: home advantage tells, Gimnasia control the contest and take the points at La Plata.

Scenario 2
43%289 voters
Barracas

A striking contrarian bloc saw Barracas causing an upset, backing the away side at a rate far exceeding the market's assessment.

Scenario 3
6%40 voters
Tie

A small fringe imagined neither side breaking through, a stalemate the crowd largely dismissed while the market kept it firmly in play.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.43
Brier score
0.43

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
344 of 673

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.