All resolved pollsResolved · 25 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Valencia vs Real Betis: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

Valencia vs Real Betis: how does it end?

Valencia vs Real Betis: how does it end? 701 verified humans answered. Crowd ran 20 points above market on Valencia, Tie crushed below price. Betis landed instead.

55%Crowd on Valencia
35%Market price
+20Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

701 verified humans · one human, one vote
ValenciaCrowd’s pick55%388 voters
Real BetisWhat happened32%226 voters
Tie12%87 voters
Real Betis won, so 32% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 55% did not. The market had Valencia at 35%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
35%
55%
Crowd
+20 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Valencia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
55%388 voters
Valencia

The crowd's dominant vision: Valencia controlling proceedings at home and seeing the match out for a home win, the clear consensus call.

Scenario 2Came true
32%226 voters
Real Betis

A substantial minority saw Betis travelling well and finding a way to take the points, backing the visitors against the crowd's grain.

Scenario 3
12%87 voters
Tie

A small slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking the deadlock, a stalemate scenario the crowd treated as far less likely than the market did.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.78
Brier score
0.78

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
226 of 701

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.