All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Upset
Coquimbo Unido5
Colo-Colo2
The verdict

The crowd backed CSD Colo-Colo. CD Coquimbo Unido won 5–2.

Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo 541 verified humans answered. Crowd leaned Colo-Colo above market price; Coquimbo Unido won, diverging from that collective read.

53%Crowd on CSD Colo-Colo
45%Market price
+8Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

541 verified humans · one human, one vote
CSD Colo-ColoCrowd’s pick53%287 voters
CD Coquimbo UnidoWhat happened27%146 voters
Tie20%108 voters
CD Coquimbo Unido won, so 27% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 53% did not. The market had CSD Colo-Colo at 45%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
45%
53%
Crowd
+8 ppts

The crowd was more confident in CSD Colo-Colo than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
53%287 voters
CSD Colo-Colo

The crowd's dominant vision: Colo-Colo asserting away-day authority, with a majority of voters converging on this as the most likely outcome.

Scenario 2Came true
27%146 voters
CD Coquimbo Unido

A minority crowd vision of Coquimbo Unido holding home ground and taking the points, sitting almost exactly where the market priced it.

Scenario 3
20%108 voters
Tie

The least favoured crowd scenario: an evenly contested match ending level, with the crowd notably cooler on this than the market implied.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.85
Brier score
0.85

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
146 of 541

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.