The crowd backed Reg Time: Santos. Reg Time: Tie won 0–0.
Macara vs Santos: how does it end? 685 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into Santos at nearly twice the market price, but the draw nobody wanted landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Santos than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The dominant crowd vision: Santos take the points in regulation, a conviction so strong it pulled more than two thirds of all voters into a single corner.
A minority crowd picture: Macara hold home advantage and see off Santos in regulation, backed by roughly one in four voters.
The crowd's least-imagined scenario: both sides cancel each other out and the points are shared, drawing barely a flicker of collective belief.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.44
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.