The crowd backed Reg Time: Olimpia. Reg Time: Vasco da Gama won 1–4.
Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama: how does it end? 678 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Olimpia, well below on Tie, Vasco took it.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Olimpia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Olimpia controlling the match at home and seeing out a regulation-time victory, the single most backed outcome by a clear margin.
A sizeable minority saw Vasco da Gama leaving with the points, rating the away side's chances notably higher than the market did.
The least favoured crowd vision: a stalemate at full time, backed by far fewer voters than the market implied and the smallest share of the collective read.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.64
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.