The crowd backed Independiente. Instituto (Córdoba) won 1–4.
Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba) 596 verified humans answered. Crowd ran 20 points above market on Independiente, the outcome that did not land.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Independiente than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The dominant crowd vision: Independiente controlling the match at home, with nearly three in five voters converging on a home win as the clear and settled expectation.
A minority crowd vision: Instituto (Córdoba) travelling well and taking the points, backed by roughly one in five voters against the grain of the collective lean.
The smallest crowd vision: neither side pulling clear, with the spoils shared, a scenario the crowd rated as the least likely of the three possible outcomes.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.02
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.