The crowd backed Mexico. United States won 3–0.
United States vs Mexico 602 verified humans answered. Crowd underweights Mexico vs the market, overweights a Tie, but the upset belonged to neither lean.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Mexico than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
A large bloc of the crowd pictured Mexico taking the match, matching the market's own lean and forming one half of a near-perfect split with the United States camp.
An equally large share of the crowd saw the United States winning, creating a rare dead-heat with the Mexico camp and signalling deep collective uncertainty about the favourite.
A meaningful minority held a draw as their vision, a share that sat well above what the market implied and gave the crowd's distribution a notably fatter middle than the price
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.54
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.