All resolved pollsResolved · 5 SEPT 2026Upset
Schalke 040
Bayern MunichCrowd had 84%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Bayern Munich. Tie won 0–0.

Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich: how does it end? 650 verified humans answered. No crowd-vs-market gap to speak of: Schalke and Tie splits are the only mild wrinkles, with Tie landing as the actual.

84%Crowd on Bayern Munich
84%Market price
0Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

650 verified humans · one human, one vote
Bayern MunichCrowd’s pick84%545 voters
Schalke9%60 voters
TieWhat happened7%45 voters
Tie won, so 7% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 84% did not. The market had Bayern Munich at 84%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
84%545 voters
Bayern Munich

The crowd's overwhelming vision: Bayern arriving as dominant favourites and leaving with the points, a conviction shared almost identically by the market.

Scenario 2
9%60 voters
Schalke

A small but notable cluster saw Schalke pulling off an upset at home, sitting slightly above what the market implied for the hosts.

Scenario 3Came true
7%45 voters
Tie

The thinnest slice of the crowd imagined neither side breaking through, a stalemate scenario the market actually priced slightly higher than the crowd did.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.58
Brier score
1.58

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
45 of 650

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.