All resolved pollsResolved · 23 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
U de Chile vs Colo-Colo: how does it end?
Universidad de Chile 1–2 Colo Colo
The verdict

Universidad de Chile 1–2 Colo Colo

U de Chile vs Colo-Colo: how does it end? 649 verified humans answered. Crowd on Colo-Colo: well above market, and the derby followed suit.

58%Crowd on Colo-Colo
34%Market price
+24Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

649 verified humans · one human, one vote
Colo-ColoWhat happened58%375 voters
U de Chile25%163 voters
Tie17%111 voters
Colo-Colo won, so 58% of the crowd called it. The market had Colo-Colo at 34%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
34%
58%
Crowd
+24 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Colo-Colo than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
58%375 voters
Colo-Colo

The crowd's dominant vision: Colo-Colo crossing the Superclasico finish line first, with the majority of voters converging tightly on this single outcome.

Scenario 2
25%163 voters
U de Chile

A quarter of the crowd saw the home side turning the derby their way, backing U de Chile to come out on top in their own backyard.

Scenario 3
17%111 voters
Tie

The smallest bloc held a stalemate vision: neither side breaking through, the Superclasico ending with honours shared and tension unresolved.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.27
Brier score
0.27

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
375 of 649

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.