Trump's approval rating on Friday 21 August: above or below 38.7%? 651 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Above approval, but the result sided with the market.
The crowd was more confident in Above than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
A clear crowd majority saw Trump's approval clearing the threshold, confident the rating would hold above the line the market had largely written off.
A minority of voters aligned with the market's dominant view, expecting approval to fall short of the threshold and stay under the line.
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.