The crowd backed Antigua GFC. Xelajú MC won 4–0.
Xelajú MC vs Antigua GFC: who wins? 656 verified humans answered. Crowd ran Antigua GFC nearly double the market price, but the Tie the market favoured came in.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Antigua GFC than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Antigua GFC taking the match outright, backed by close to half of all verified voters as the clear collective favourite.
A sizeable minority saw Xelajú MC flipping the script on home turf, holding the same implied weight as the market but trailing the crowd's top call by a wide margin.
The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate where neither side could separate themselves, assigned the lowest share of collective belief despite the market pricing it as the
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.83
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.