The crowd called it — Reg Time: Botafogo won 1–0.
Botafogo vs Cienciano: how does it end? 670 verified humans answered. Crowd ran cold on Botafogo, warm on Cienciano, far from where the market stood. Top pick still landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Reg Time: Botafogo than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's modal vision: Botafogo win in regulation, though with far less certainty than the market implied and real weight left on other outcomes.
A substantial minority saw Cienciano pulling off the upset in regulation, a read strikingly more generous than the market's near-dismissal of that path.
A small slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through in regulation, a stalemate scenario the market priced similarly low.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.23
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.