All resolved pollsResolved · 28 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Who wins the Cavite 4th District special election?
Resolved
The verdict

Who wins the Cavite 4th District special election?

Who wins the Cavite 4th District special election? 683 verified humans answered. Barzaga draws the crowd's firmest conviction in a field where belief stays scattered across rivals.

33%Crowd on Jennifer Austria Barzaga

How the crowd voted

683 verified humans · one human, one vote
Jennifer Austria BarzagaWhat happened33%223 voters
Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.21%144 voters
Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat18%125 voters
Leysander Aguilar Ordenes17%115 voters
Another candidate8%53 voters
Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag3%23 voters
Jennifer Austria Barzaga won, so 33% of the crowd called it.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
33%223 voters
Jennifer Austria Barzaga

The crowd's most-backed vision: Barzaga clears a fragmented field, drawing a clear plurality while rivals split the remaining vote without consolidating around any single

Scenario 2
21%144 voters
Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

A meaningful minority saw Frani Jr. As the man to beat, picturing him edging past Barzaga in a tight race where the field's fragmentation worked in his favour.

Scenario 3
18%125 voters
Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

Mangubat's backers envisioned him threading through a crowded contest, converting a modest but real base into enough votes to claim the district seat.

Scenario 4
17%115 voters
Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

17% of voters backed Leysander Aguilar Ordenes.

Scenario 5
8%53 voters
Another candidate

8% of voters backed Another candidate.

Scenario 6
3%23 voters
Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

3% of voters backed Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.56
Brier score
0.56

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-3

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
223 of 683

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.