The crowd called it — Independiente Medellín won 2–1.
Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba: who wins? 644 verified humans answered. Crowd sits well below the market on Medellín, and well above it on Jaguares.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Independiente Medellín than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's modal vision: Medellín take the points, though with far less certainty than the market assigns them.
A striking minority vision: Jaguares pull off a result the market barely entertains, backed by a full quarter of the crowd.
The crowd's least-favoured scenario: the match ends level, with a share close to what the market also prices in.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.24
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.